Vincent Gable’s Blog

May 9, 2009

Words Lie More Than Statistics

Filed under: Quotes | , , , ,
― Vincent Gable on May 9, 2009

Increasingly it seems, people throw up their hands, “graphs and statistics are all lies anyway!” and never deeply examine quantitative information. And that’s part of the reason why I can’t recommend The Visual Display of Quantitative Information enough.

For many people the first word that comes to mind when they think about statistical charts is “lie.” No doubt some graphics do distort the underlying data, making it hard for the viewer to learn the truth. But data graphics are no different from words in this regard, for any means of communication can be used to deceive. There is no reason to believe that graphics are especially vulnerable to exploitation by liars; in fact, most of us have pretty good graphical lie detectors that help us see right through frauds.

Much of twentieth-century thinking about statistical graphics has been preoccupied with the question of how some amateurish chart might fool a naive viewer. Other important issues, such as the use of graphics for serious data analysis, were largely ignored. At the core of the preoccupation with deceptive graphics was the assumption that data graphics were mainly devices for showing the obvious to the ignorant. It is hard to imagine any doctrine more likely to stifle intellectual progress in a field…

–Edward Tufte, The Visual Display of Quantitative Information, page 53.

You will be lied to more often, and more subtly, with words than with figures. But unlike empty words, the data behind a chart is verifiable, and can be objectively redrawn. As I see it, quantitative analysis is our best chance to reason truthfully and without ego. Sometimes infographics are a better tool than words, especially for summarizing large datasets objectively. If anything, we should be scared when there aren’t graphs and statistics.

April 27, 2009

Don’t Trust TIME

Filed under: Announcement,Security | , , ,
― Vincent Gable on April 27, 2009

Technical problems can be remediated. A dishonest corporate culture is much harder to fix.

Bruce Schneier

UPDATE 2009-06-12: See also, The Top 10 Most Absurd Time Covers of The Past 40 Years.

BREAKING NEWS 2010-08-26: The Onion: TIME Magazine Announces New Version of Magazine for Adults.

Recently The 2009 TIME 100 Finalists online-poll was manipulated with hither-to unheard of sophistication. Not only did hackers vote their choice into the #1 spot, but they stuffed the ballot so that the runners up spelled out a message!

kg9kl.jpg

Jeff Atwood called TIME’s web developers clowns, but that seems too harsh to me, since online polls are so inherently untrustworthy that spending resources trying to secure them is almost always a waste. Even if all the technical problems could be solved, the results still wouldn’t be meaningful, because they wouldn’t be a census or a random sampling. An online poll is a way to engage readers, and let them do more than passively consume. TIME’s poll succeeded there, even if it was gamed. (Arguably it was more engaging because it was gamed).

But today, April 27th, TIME’s writers disingenuously denied the hack

TIME.com’s technical team did detect and extinguish several
attempts to hack the vote.

When I first heard news of the attacks, it was already a week old, TIME’s whitewashing came two weeks after the results of the hack were published. Portraying the hack as an “attempt” that was “extinguished” is just blatantly wrong.

I’m a big believer in Hanlon’s razor: “never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.” But it’s very hard to give TIME’s staff the benefit of the doubt here, since by their own admission they were aware of the hack, and the poll results were “surprising”. It takes a staggering amount of stupidity not to connect the dots, or be aware of what was being written about you for weeks.

Consequently, TIME has lost my trust. If their denial was written in stupidity, it shows an unforgivably incompetent journalistic ethic. If it was a deliberate whitewashing of the poll results, then it’s an even more egregious failure. Also, what kind of an article announcing the winner of a poll only has pictures of people who are not the winner? (Hint: something by the hacks at TIME)

Powered by WordPress